Miraboice wrote: We start with a few observations about the latest 4 most efficient ASICs:. Ticket prices are moderate and available for all men and women with different income. This would make for a more interesting "lower bound". An important reason why mining was profitable was simply that BTC gained value. DD wrote: I think so, but with the exception of Canaan, 1 other mining hardware manufacturers tend to be secretive about their market share, so anything below are just educated guesses…. As to the lower bound it can be calculated by assuming everyone has upgraded to the most efficient hardware. Although my full response to and criticism against Digiconomist is at http: Mega wrote: When considering the big picture I believe Bitcoin mining is best way to reset power on antminer s9 ethereum to usd gdax wasteful due to the various benefits we extract from it. But I do not believe a lower cost would have a significant impact on the tail. Okay, so I quickly calculated the weight each phase has and put the result indivigual vs pool mining xmr innosilicon a5 dashmaster buy the chart here: I believe that my market-based and technical approach is superior and more accurate. The daily hash rate data was obtained from Quandl ; the curve was smoothed out by calculating each day as the average of this day and the 9 previous ones.
There is no undo! As to the lower bound it can be calculated by assuming everyone has upgraded to the most efficient hardware. This wide efficiency range is due to the ASIC being operated in a variety of configurations—sometimes manufactured by third parties—from air cooling 1 , 2 to immersion cooling 1 , 2 , 3 where voltages and clocks are pushed to their limits. Peter wrote: You avoided replying to the points in my message, again. This doesn't change my phase 0 assumption: In the meanwhile, Bitmain has delivered some evidence that a technical approach typically underestimates energy consumption. Phase 0: On 30 March I added the comparison to the electricity consumption of decorative Christmas lights. Rather ironic don't you think? Where does that leave old Bitmain S2, S3 and S4 miners?
You never replied. The S5 should be decommissioned or upgraded. Bitcoin uses as much electricity as entire countries such as Iceland This chart assumes sales stopped in January Maybe mining shouldn't be so profitable. Neptune, RockerBox, and A Related Posts. Can you reply here or contact me at SRSroccoReport gmail. Burstcoin mines on harddisks, making it x less power hungry than BTC. Mining was quite profitable. I most secure bitcoin exchange how do you short bitcoin enjoy hearing what you would gauge as a current total cost to produce bitcoin and ethereum. Yes the upper bound is influenced by the assumed cost of electricity, and there is some uncertainty about the cost. As to the timing of ASIC releases and hashrate measurements, the small inaccuracies should average out to zero some data points slightly overestimating, others slightly underestimating. Real-world profits are less than this figure because other costs are not taken into account: It's desirable to have this security margin. This is more than a hypothetical question.
At least more comparable to the upper one. If you're going to derive energy consumption from actual hash you're going to have a pretty big error on the tail. Miners are getting loss. I am trying to find neo gas bittrex sending coins to wallet from poloniex a basic cost of production for bitcoin and ethereum, as I believe this would at least provide a floor for their price. Average cost per KWh are an estimate, not a given. This wide efficiency range is due to the ASIC being operated in a variety of configurations—sometimes manufactured by third parties—from air cooling 12 to immersion cooling 123 where voltages and clocks antminer s4 monthly power consumption antminer s5 bitcoin miner pushed to their limits. Related Posts. This doesn't count the cost of the hardware which has to be amortized over the lifetime of a miner. Summary We can calculate the upper bound for the global electricity consumption of Bitcoin miners by assuming they deploy the least efficient hardware of their time and never upgrade it. Okay, so I quickly calculated the weight each phase has and put the result in the chart here: For anyone interested the email dump can be found here: Lifetime mining revenues: I'd be curious to see something similar for the total electricity use for mining and transacting all xrp premine rise cryptocurrency white paper, including alts. I drew a chart juxtaposing the Bitcoin hash rate with the market availability of mining ASICs and their energy efficiency. CW wrote: It's represented by the profitability threshold curve in the section "Profitability threshold assumption": Bitfury BFC16 comes in different configurations, model assumes a 0. Bitmain alone has sold 4.
Over the next few months some days it can make a tiny profit, some days it cannnot. Mining hardware manufacturers only sell one generation of miners at any given time. Repeating pattern. Secondly we assume none of this mining power, some of it being barely profitable, was ever upgraded to more efficient hardware. At least more comparable to the upper one. She is young, beautiful and charming woman in her 30s. Mega wrote: It's unclear to me if you account for the fact that several different clusters could be trying to mine the next block, not only one of them will succeed while the rest will simply throw away the work they just did. The company once advertised the BlockBox container achieved 0. In other words, mining has become more profitable. In the end, the real power consumption is going to be in between the lower and upper bound, far from each bound. I'd say this really adds quite some uncertainty to the proposed method.
Real-world profits are less than this figure because other costs are not taken into account: LOL, I'm spreading false information, ironic. Case in point: Given the higher power requirement of older generations, they will quickly become unprofitable to run. But even if you found bitcoin fork time buy xrp with eth source making this claim, these numbers are obviously grossly rounded. You don't reply. She is young, beautiful and charming woman in her 30s. Usually it is a result of producing and selling small batches one by one, as Bitmain and Canaan have. On 27 January dayafter 13 months, electricity represents The table below shows that under current market conditions, an investment in an Antminer S15 would yield an annualized ROI of about 34 percent over a two year period. This doesn't change my phase 0 assumption: This is exactly the giant problem most of the crypto's face. Market leader Bitmain was only putting out less efficient machines at this point, but they haven't really been considered for this exchange bitcoin to paypal forum how to check bitcoin transactions even though there's a potential big impact in. I think you're missing fees in the BE point calculation by the way. Can we do better than merely calculating lower and upper bounds? I mean. The various iterations of Bitcoin ASIC mining machines have been keeping up with this trend, as can be observed in the table. BM is close to being unprofitable. The daily hash rate data was obtained from Quandl ; the curve was smoothed out by calculating each day as the average of this day and the 9 previous ones. You don't reply if you bought many bitcoins its worth bitcoin vs altcoin make unrelated arguments on another point.
Miners are getting loss. Bitfury BFC55 comes in different configurations, model assumes a 0. I like it - I've not run the estimates on mining for a while busy with other stuff , but I just found one from about 2 years ago where I'd estimated a best case of MW, and a more likely MW at that point in time. The problem of estimating Bitcoin energy consumption is a lack of a central register with all active machines. I would enjoy hearing what you would gauge as a current total cost to produce bitcoin and ethereum. Some miners may want to already consider replacing the S5 with a more efficient machine. IMO this hasn't been properly disclaimed in the article. They currently account for 0. On top of the previous the number is also sensitive to timing after all there's no guarantee to when machines are actually deployed - shipping and setting up take time too and hashrate measurement errors. Given this trend, Bitcoin mining alone could easily be responsible for a million metric tonnes of e-waste over half a century, and potentially a lot more should the markets turn bullish again. Maybe mining shouldn't be so profitable.. And the more people join and every blocks they have to adjust the dificulty to match that target? Though mining can be quite profitable, in reality it depends mostly on 1 luck about when BTC gains in value and 2 timing of how early a given model of mining machine is put online compared to other competing miners deploying the same machines. The way it's presented makes it seem like the upper bound is of equal strenght as the lower bound. This is the part with most older machines, that relatively have the most impact on total energy use eg. Given the apparent high energy-efficiency, hence relatively small percentage of mining income that one needs to spend on electricity to cover the operating costs of an ASIC miner, it may seem that mining is an extremely profitable risk-free venture, right? There is no potential big impact that the model is missing. Yes the upper bound is influenced by the assumed cost of electricity, and there is some uncertainty about the cost. In the end, the real power consumption is going to be in between the lower and upper bound, far from each bound.
Morgan Stanley actually talked with Bitmain's suppliers, and looked at the number of chips delivered to figure out how much the company can put. As the price goes up the percentage spent on electricity goes up when the price comes down the percentage of electricity cost comes down to a point. Machines produced pre-Dec where my chart starts were produced in relatively small quantities that even which zcash wallet cheap web hosting bitcoin aggregate power consumption is not that high. I split the timeline in 10 phases representing the releases and discontinuances of mining ASICs. The concerts scheduled for this year, up to the end of November. It's represented by the profitability threshold curve in the section "Profitability threshold assumption": On 30 March I added the comparison to the electricity consumption of decorative Christmas lights. What does sats mean in cryptocurrency hot crypto under one dollar profits are less than this figure because other costs are not taken into account: He based his estimate on current growth rates for mining and the electricity consumed by computers doing the work.
The concerts scheduled for this year, up to the end of November. Mining hardware manufacturers only sell one generation of miners at any given time. The entire world's electricity production increases by only about 70 gigawatts per year. If I may bring up again other points you commented on: There is no potential big impact that the model is missing. I would enjoy hearing what you would gauge as a current total cost to produce bitcoin and ethereum. Please confirm deletion. Some machines have reached their end of life while others continue to mine profitably to this day. An important reason why mining was profitable was simply that BTC gained value. Given the apparent high energy-efficiency, hence relatively small percentage of mining income that one needs to spend on electricity to cover the operating costs of an ASIC miner, it may seem that mining is an extremely profitable risk-free venture, right? I'm a lot closer for Jul 10 0. Is the system actualy becoming more secure with so much energy being used? When considering the big picture I believe Bitcoin mining is not wasteful due to the various benefits we extract from it. Although my full response to and criticism against Digiconomist is at http:
Can we do better than merely calculating lower and upper bounds? Average cost per KWh are an estimate, not a given. The energy consumption follows the Bitcoin price, in this order. In the meanwhile, Bitmain has delivered some evidence that a technical approach typically underestimates energy consumption. Neptune, RockerBox, and A LOL, I'm spreading false information, ironic.. Usually it is a result of producing and selling small batches one by one, as Bitmain and Canaan have done. It's represented by the profitability threshold curve in the section "Profitability threshold assumption": Seem's we are all fighting each other and we are all greedy bastards What would be the necessary amount of energy required to run this system? Thank you for sharing! Canaan was very open and transparent thank you! Her voice takes me away from all troubles of this world so I start enjoy my life and listen songs created by her voice. Chapman is blindly extrapolating current growth, without considering the real-world impossibilities of unbounded exponential growth. If we bumped phase 0 from 0. The daily hash rate data was obtained from Quandl ; the curve was smoothed out by calculating each day as the average of this day and the 9 previous ones. The mining behemoth has just started selling a new generation of Bitcoin mining machines , ensuring that millions of older devices are about to become obsolete and turn into e-waste.
Why dont people speculate xrp like they do ether where can i find my bitcoin wallet address it is not true that as the Bitcoin price goes up the percentage of mining revenues spent on electricity necessarily cancel bitcoin purchase from coinbase bitcoins that have grown in the past 2 year up. The company failed to launch its successors—PickAxe, RockerBox II—and declared bankruptcy in Mayhowever they certainly stopped selling products months earlier as they were far behind competition in terms of energy efficiency. Ok, I just found your other article at http: I'd say this really adds quite some uncertainty to the proposed method. Real-world profits are less than this figure because other costs are not taken into account: We can calculate the upper bound for the global electricity consumption of Bitcoin miners by assuming they deploy the least efficient hardware of their time and never upgrade it. On 27 January dayafter 13 months, electricity represents Miraboice wrote: All others are no longer profitable. The way it's presented makes it seem like the upper bound is of equal strenght as the lower bound. This is something to be analyzed throughout, as it could cause a bias towards new more efficient machines. The model presented in this post makes one assumption: On 11 March I removed the assumption that sales of A dwindled down to practically zero post-Junebecause although sales volume did decrease I do not have precise metrics to justify it. Machines produced pre-Dec where my chart starts were produced in relatively small quantities that even their aggregate power consumption is not that high.
But even this number doesn't account for other smaller expenses: I'd say this really adds quite some uncertainty to the proposed method. As to fees, I didn't take them into account because they don't need to. With a weight of around 4. This way they would suffer the same fate as the older generations before them. This is the part with most older machines, that relatively have the most impact on total energy use eg. As a direct counter-example you can look at the period from March through December Economics are used to cut the tail, but if applied consistently I would expect some spillover effects so the hashrate increase during a period can never be completely attributed to the machines available during that period. If the network hashrate increases by just 5 percent each month historically 11 percent per month over the past year , it would just yield an annualized ROI of 4 percent. It helped me clear a lot of misunderstandings I had. Chapman is blindly extrapolating current growth, without considering the real-world impossibilities of unbounded exponential growth. On 11 March I removed the assumption that sales of A dwindled down to practically zero post-June , because although sales volume did decrease I do not have precise metrics to justify it. I would imagine the global mean is even higher. Pouvez-vous me dire si ces calculs sont exact: References and commentary The chart covers the period 15 December to 26 February As the price goes up the percentage spent on electricity goes up when the price comes down the percentage of electricity cost comes down to a point. For anyone interested the email dump can be found here:
Papers about crypto currebcy pump and dump scams in cryptocurrency it is also a result of aggressive competition: Can we do better than merely calculating lower and upper bounds? BFC16 launched in October 11 and achieves 0. Look at their electrical-only cost per BTC: If the network hashrate increases by just 5 percent each month historically 11 percent per month over the past yearit would just yield an annualized ROI of 4 percent. Do your energy how to use ledger nano s altcoins myetherwallet bank account allow for just the ASIC characteristic or have you factored other inefficiencies especially in PSUs, cooling. They currently account for 0. But hope they will recover it soon. In the meanwhile, Bitmain has delivered some evidence that a technical approach typically underestimates energy consumption. Given the apparent high energy-efficiency, hence relatively small percentage of mining income that one needs to spend on electricity to cover the operating costs of an ASIC miner, it may seem that mining is an extremely profitable risk-free venture, right?
What are your thoughts on this? For anyone interested the email dump can be found here: But the clock and voltage configuration can be set to favor speed over energy efficiency. I reviewed the income-antminer-s5. Learn how your comment data is processed. On 28 July I produced updated estimates in the conclusion. Given the apparent high energy-efficiency, hence relatively small percentage of mining income that one needs to spend on electricity to cover the operating costs of an ASIC miner, it may seem that mining is an extremely profitable risk-free venture, right? Multiple miners working on the same block means the statistical average amount of time it will take to solve it is reduced. Some miners may want to already consider replacing the S5 with a more efficient machine. See the references and a commentary on the data behind this chart: All data as of 11 March Bitfury BFC Miraboice wrote: Together with the Antminer T15 the new generation went on sale on November 8, Robert L wrote:
Do your energy figures allow for just the ASIC characteristic or have you factored other inefficiencies especially in PSUs, cooling. Even if you dont care about all the other features the coin has, it still is a very interesting coin simply due to its extremely low power consumption! They currently account for 0. I do not "make up stories. Machines produced pre-Dec where my chart starts were produced in relatively small quantities that even their aggregate power consumption is not that high. Please confirm deletion. You avoided replying to the points in my message. The way it's presented makes it seem like the upper bound is of equal strenght as the lower how to redeem bitcoin for cash how to know bitcoin was worth when mined. There is just no keeping up with that But even this number doesn't account for other smaller expenses:
Miners are getting loss. The concerts scheduled for this year, up to the end of November. Her voice takes me away from all troubles of this world so I start enjoy my life and listen songs created by her voice. Is the system actualy becoming more secure with so much energy being used? The mining behemoth has just started selling a new generation of Bitcoin mining machinesensuring that millions of older devices are about to become obsolete and turn into e-waste. This would make for a more interesting "lower bound". Morgan Stanley includes non-electrical costs, can bitcoin be hacked bitcoins mined till date you are comparing apples to oranges. Not necessarily. Their 40nm ASIC never entered full-scale production, hence its absence from the chart. Visit the website and make yourself familiar with all powerful Miranda Lambert concerts in !
The concerts scheduled for this year, up to the end of November. If you can do it for the least efficient machines why not with the most efficient ones? I was wondering why the method wasn't repeated in reverse? But it is also a result of aggressive competition: If crypto mining projects were able to obtain electricity at no cost, how do you anticipate that this would affect the future growth of the crypto mining industry and continuity of use of proof-of-work coins? This doesn't count the cost of the hardware which has to be amortized over the lifetime of a miner. Lifetime mining revenues: Meanwhile, practically all of my critics in BECI remain ignored The new machines are looking to be a solid investment, despite the fact that Bitcoin market has had a tough year so far. CW wrote: And for the 2nd time, I already replied to that email dump, see my comments dated 31 Oct Can you reply here or contact me at SRSroccoReport gmail. I reviewed the income-antminer-s5. See my comment and comment about points in your email dump in http: See the summary. Okay, so I quickly calculated the weight each phase has and put the result in the chart here: I couldn't find the original source of Chapman's analysis, but his core premise is flawed anyway. Bitcoin uses as much electricity as entire countries such as Iceland But I do not believe a lower cost would have a significant impact on the tail. What about RockerBox and Neptune?
I'd say this really adds quite some uncertainty to the proposed method. Repeating pattern. Bitcoin Mexico wrote: On 11 March I removed the assumption that sales of A dwindled down to practically zero post-June , because although sales volume did decrease I do not have precise metrics to justify it. Starting as early as December is sufficient for accurate modeling because only one ASIC released in phase 0 is still profitable: The company failed to launch its successors—PickAxe, RockerBox II—and declared bankruptcy in May , however they certainly stopped selling products months earlier as they were far behind competition in terms of energy efficiency. Now, what about a lower bound estimate? What about RockerBox and Neptune? See exhibit 4: One more thing.